TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
Super Typhoon “MAWAR”
Issued at 11:00 AM, 25 May 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 PM today
“MAWAR” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WESTWARD
• Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon “MAWAR” was estimated based on all available data at 2,065 km East of Southeastern Luzon (14.2°N, 143.3°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 930 hPa
• Present Movement:
West at 10 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 400 km from the center
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• Super Typhoon MAWAR is forecast to accelerate tracking generally west northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning westward. On the forecast track, MAWAR will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or on Saturday morning and will move west northwestward throughout the forecast period towards the sea area east of Extreme Northern Luzon. The forecast confidence cone and the slightly southward shift in the model solutions suggest that the potential for a much closer approach to the country than the ones shown by the center track is not ruled out.
• MAWAR is forecast to continue intensifying in the next three days and may reach a peak intensity of 215 km/h by Sunday. Afterwards, the super typhoon is forecast to weaken although it will remain a typhoon by the end of the forecast period.
• Current track scenario shows that the rain bands of the typhoon may bring heavy rains over Cagayan Valley between Sunday and Tuesday next week. In addition, strong to gale-force conditions may be experienced in most areas of the region (except for Batanes-Babuyan Islands area which may have gale to storm-force conditions) which result in the hoisting of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal in the coming days. However, considering potential shifts in the track forecasts of MAWAR, residents in Cagayan Valley and other areas of Northern Luzon are advised to monitor for changes in the forecast weather scenario.
• MAWAR is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and may trigger monsoon rains over the western portions of Luzon and Visayas beginning on Sunday or Monday. However, the monsoon rains scenario may still change due to dependence of Southwest Monsoon enhancement on the track and intensity of MAWAR.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless an intermediate advisory or initial tropical cyclone bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.